Battleground states to watch in the 2024 election
As the 2024 presidential election inches closer, there are a number of states where the race for the White House could go in either direction. Battleground states played key roles in deciding the presidential outcomes in both 2016 and 2020, and based on recent polls, are likely to do the same again this November.
Former President Donald Trump won in 2016 in part by building a “red wall” of battleground states in the Midwest, with his victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin often cited as the race’s deciding factors. President Joe Biden was able to beat Trump four years later predominantly by flipping these states back to Democratic.
This year, both Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, will undoubtedly have to capture these states to become the next president. Here’s a look at the battleground states in the 2024 presidential election.
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Wisconsin
America’s Dairyland could end up poking some Swiss cheese-sized holes in the upcoming election, just as it did in 2016 and 2020. It is likely that the path to the presidency “will run directly through Wisconsin as the swing state could prove pivotal in deciding which party emerges victorious,” Spectrum News Milwaukee reported.
While Wisconsin has only 10 electoral votes, it “could once again be the tipping point state,” Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, told Spectrum. This is one major reason why the GOP hosted the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Demographics near Wisconsin’s major cities are noticeably shifting, as Milwaukee’s suburbs “historically voted Republican but have been shifting towards Democrats over the last several years,” NPR said. This could be the deciding factor in a state where four of the last six presidential races were decided by less than 1%. Beyond this, the “excitement among loyal Democrats lit by Harris replacing Biden has enlivened the party’s base in Wisconsin,” said The Associated Press, particularly in areas where Harris “must run up big margins” to keep Trump from flipping the state.
Michigan
Michigan has similarly become a predictive state for those looking to capture the White House — in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the Wolverine State by just two votes per precinct, and would go on to lose the election. Biden won the state’s 16 electoral votes in 2020 in large part due to his support from Black people in the Detroit suburbs and Harris will now look to capture that demographic again this year.
However, a recent poll from WDIV / The Detroit News shows that Trump is narrowly leading Harris in Michigan, with less than two points separating the candidates in what The Detroit News said was a “statistical toss-up.” When it comes to specific issues, Michiganders “tend to think Trump would do a better job handling the U.S. economy, foreign affairs and the southern border,” said The Hill, while most believe Harris “would do a better job strengthening American democracy and is someone they can trust more.”
But Michigan overall has “tilted more toward Democrats since 2016 than Wisconsin,” CNN said, though it is “possible that order could shift in November.” The state has a large Arab American and Muslim population, and each candidate’s plan for handling the Israel-Hamas war could prove to be a deciding factor in the contest.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State secured Biden’s threshold of victory in 2020, and Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes “may choose America’s next president” again this year, said CNN. When it comes to Pennsylvania in particular, both Trump and Harris “need to explain to voters how their lives will be improved by their administrations,” Dr. Todd Belt, a political management professor at George Washington University, said to WICU-TV Erie. Both candidates “have talked about reducing prices for buying homes and at the grocery store,” but neither “has done a good job” of explaining these goals.
And the close margin could change at any time given the earliness of the race. Pennsylvania was also riddled four years ago with unfounded accusations of voter fraud from Trump and his team, and some are worried that a similar scenario could play out in 2024.
Many elections workers are arguing that Pennsylvania “should update its century-old Election Code, make long-sought adjustments to mail voting processes and strengthen the system against bogus fraud claims,” Spotlight PA said. At least four of these workers told the outlet there were changes needed to “shore up Pennsylvania’s system against frivolous fraud allegations.”
Georgia
While traditionally a Republican bastion, the Peach State is undergoing a “transition from GOP stronghold to a premier battleground as the political calendar turns to the 2024 presidential cycle,” The Associated Press said.
The AP’s assessment came after Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won his runoff election at the end of 2022, cementing Georgia with two Democratic senators for the foreseeable future. However, as AP also noted, Warnock’s victory “came a month after Gov. Brian Kemp led the GOP’s general election sweep of Georgia’s statewide constitutional offices.”
As a result, Georgia, like Pennsylvania, is “coming into view as a critical battleground for both leaders as they struggle to gain voters’ attention in an epochal election,” said The Guardian. While Biden had been losing support from Black voters in the state, Georgia Democrats have seen a “pronounced bounce in popularity” under Harris. However, Trump still remained ahead of Harris in recent polls, and there remains an “intense focus” by the Democrats to whittle this lead away.
Arizona
Biden’s victory in Arizona marked the first time a Democrat had carried the state since former President Bill Clinton in 1996 — and was only the second time Arizona had gone blue since the 1940s. Its 11 electoral votes will once again be a key commodity in 2024.
Arizona notably has one of the largest contingents of independent voters, which could be a determinant in a state that Biden won by just 10,000 votes in 2020. Independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in Arizona, according to Reuters. A poll cited by the outlet last summer reported that “37% of independents nationally said the criminal cases against Trump made them less likely to vote for him for president.”
While many independents appear to have not made up their mind, others “are still supporting the brash former reality TV showman, who asserts without evidence he is a victim of a judicial system biased against Republicans,” Reuters said.
Nevada
While Nevada may carry only six electoral votes, this could make all the difference in a race that is expected to be razor-close. Such was the case in 2020, when Biden won the state by just 3%.
While much of rural Nevada remains Republican, Las Vegas and Reno remain bastions for the Democratic Party. However, former Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) “was also the nation’s only incumbent Democratic governor to lose in 2022,” the Nevada Current said. This is partially because Sisolak “passed up multiple opportunities to saddle his Republican opponent, Joe Lombardo, with Trump and Trumpism,” the Current added.
Who wins Nevada may depend on the narrative forged in the Silver State. Despite the closeness of the polls, which remain within the margin of error, Nevada is often a political enigma: The state has voted for the Democratic candidate for president for the last four election cycles but has had just one Democratic governor since 1999.
North Carolina
North Carolina has “suddenly become a key swing state” with the introduction of Harris into the race, said Forbes. The Tar Heel State’s 16 electoral votes are now proving to be more of a toss-up than anticipated, and Harris “could become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years.”
North Carolina’s “demographic profile as an ethnically diverse and rapidly suburbanizing state looks similar to other former Republican-leaning Sun Belt states that Democrats have flipped over the last few cycles,” said the Cook Political Report. But while the state “looks more competitive than ever,” said Cook, unaffiliated voters “are now the largest voting bloc in North Carolina,” said WFAE Charlotte. Beyond this, the “number of people registered as Democrats is going down, and the number of people registered as Republicans is going up,” meaning Trump likely still has the upper hand in the state for now.
